Altcoin Analysis for 30-09-2017: NEO, DASH, IOTA, XMR and NEM – newsBTC

newsBTCAltcoin Analysis for 30-09-2017: NEO, DASH, IOTA, XMR and NEMnewsBTCNEWS · ANALYSIS · CHARTS; EDUCATION. What is Bitcoin? Accepting Bitcoin · Using Bitcoin · Mining Bitcoin · Trading Bitcoi…

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Protesters ‘walk the line’ to show location of underground <b>oil</b> pipes in Northwest Indiana

“Line 6B/78 is an integral part of he region’s critical energy infrastructure, providing a safe and efficient supply of crude oil to numerous regional …

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Morgan Stanley CEO, James Gorman, Offers More Rational Words on Bitcoin

It might seem that lately, the world of high-finance want nothing more than to drop a proverbial load all over Bitcoin but CEO of leading global financial services firm Morgan Stanley, James Gorman, offered words to support the contrary on Wednesday. Speaking at a conference hosted by The Wall Street Journal, he said he considered Bitcoin… View Article

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A Market In Which “Shocks No Longer Shock”: Deutsche’s Kocic Explains How To Trade It

Back in June, one of Wall Street’s more philosophical derivatives strategists, DB’s Aleksandar Kocic looked at the state of the market and postulated that far from “stable” the existing risk  “equilibrium” is one which can be described as “metastable“, the result of widespread complacency, and which he compared to an avalanche where “a totally innocuous event can trigger a cataclysmic event (e.g. a skier’s scream, or simply continued snowfall until the snow cover is so massive that its own weight triggers an avalanche.” Putting it in his usual post-modernist style, Kocic said that “complacency encourages bad behavior and penalizing dissent – there is a negative carry for not joining the crowd, which further reinforces bad behavior.”

This is the source of the positive feedback that triggers occasional anxiety attacks, which, although episodic, have the potential to create liquidity problems. Complacency arises either when everyone agrees with everyone else or when no one agrees with anyone. In these situations, which capture the two modes of recent market trading, current and the QE period, the markets become calm and volatility selling and carry strategies define the trading landscape. But, calm makes us worry, and persistent worrying causes fear, and fear tends to be reinforcing.

Kocic framed the current state of the market as follows:

 

Unfortunately, the relentless grind ever lower in volatility, which as reported yesterday has resulted in both the lowest average September VIX on record…

 

… as well as the lowest September monthly settlement on record and only the second sub-10 monthly settlement… 

… appears to have finally unsettled Kocic’ expectations, even if ever so tacitly implied, for a spike higher in suppressed vol, and as he writes in his latest ruminations on volatility, “as volatility continues to be unfazed by what lies ahead in the near term, short of surprises in inflation, we are likely to linger at low levels.”

Following up to his note from last week, which explained how the Fed’s fake “transparency” killed long-term investor, Kocic writes that “as transparency became the word of the decade, by its very nature it created the forces that push everything to the surface. Things exist thanks only to the attention they produce. There is no room for ambiguity.” 

Which ties in to the current news cycle, a relentless barrage of flashing red headlines, one scarier than the other, yet which on aggregate have zero adverse impact on volatility, and certainly on risk assets, which on Friday spiked to a new all time high following the latest last-second VIX-smash. Or, as Kocic puts it, “although shocks (political and other) keep arriving in the market, they seem to be appearing at what looks like predictable time intervals (usually, on Fridays). Practically every week, there is a new issue that eclipses the previous one, and we lose interest in past issues, before there is any semblance of resolution.”

And with traders’ attention spans already severely lacking, this habituation to hyperbolic, staccato newsflow means that not only is the market not discounting the future as Matt King postulated several months ago, but it is no longer able to even respond to the present, to wit:

Shocks, if they are predictable, lose their spell and gradually become facts of life. Predictable political shocks feed back into their source. Due to their antagonistic character, they gradually erode the ability to make consensus and reduce the ability to legislate, making further reforms at least questionable, if not highly unlikely. The market “euphoria” (aka the Trump trade) that followed immediately after the elections is being perceived as increasingly remote. Despite all the promises of reflation of the economy, fiscal stimulus, expectation of economic turnaround, no change is on the horizon. We are stuck with the status quo, albeit a noisy one.

So what does this mean for risk assets, and markets? According to the Deutsche analyst, “despite all the distortions and disruptions introduced by the central banks’, which has created a semi-permanent state of exception, markets have not lost one main characteristic, their adaptability. As the markets are getting inoculated against event risk, volatility continues to be under pressure. While we are distancing ourselves from the idea of political change, the Fed is seen, once again, as the main source of volatility. However, the Fed’s position is an uncomfortable one. The main problem it faces is the balance between preventing inflation from becoming a risk while at the same time not causing a rapid and substantial rise of rates. This requires a high level of fine tuning. It means that the Fed has to continue with rate hikes, but the hikes have to be done carefully without triggering the bond unwind.”

The implication for vol traders is that contrary to warnings of market “metastability” and “suppressed cataclysmic vol events”, Kocic – in many ways pulling a Hugh Hendry of his own – comes to the admission that fighting the Fed’s control over vol has become a futile pastime, and even though further complacency is in the cards, “continued vol selling” is encouraged.

… the market gradually, and reluctantly, trails behind the Fed, one hike at a time, and adjusts expectations on the go, without taking a longterm view on the Fed. It is difficult to see how this can lead to any excitement capable of inspiring higher volatility. As long as things evolve according to this scenario, everything shoiuld remain “predictable” with occasional noise that the market has learned to ignore. This is an environment that is bearish for volatility. It fosters further complacency and encourages continued vol selling.

Finally, Kocic takes a “Greek” detour and asks whether in this environment, in which every shock is ignored by a market now programmed to sell vol no matter what, “there is hope for Gamma?” Here is his answer:

In our recent publications, we have extracted one possible measure of liquidity from the volume data of Treasury futures. This measure quantifies sensitivity of the price to changes in trading volume. The liquidity index is expressed as a negative log of this sensitivity, so that large sensitivity corresponds to low liquidity and vice versa. The figure shows the (smoothed) liquidity (on the inverted axis) overlaid with the 3M10Y– low vol goes hand in hand with high liquidity.

 

 

Liquidity has a logical connection with volatility. This starts at the very short end and propagates across the term structure: By making a price, market makers are implicitly short volatility for which they are required to allocate risk capital and the bid/ask spread (which is an indirect measure of liquidity) is the compensation they receive for this risk exposure. All else equal, the ability to hedge an option is a function of liquidity of the underlying, and the option prices should reflect that. From the figure, we note that post 2004, with the disappearance of mortgage negative convexity hedging and the growth of  volume on the exchanges, liquidity has been providing a lower bound for gamma – whenever gamma reached this lower bound, it has been pushed up. Also, the departures from that lower bound have been increasingly rarer and short lived. This holds not only for rates, but for equities as well.

 

As volatility continues to be unphased by what lies ahead in the near term, short of surprise in inflation, we are likely to linger at low levels. In that context, liquidity constraints are going to define the lower bound on gamma.

As a reminder, none of this is new: those who have traded this market (for more than just a few years) instead of merely commenting on it, will recall all those vol traders who lost their jobs in early 2007 when vol crashed so hard, there literally wasn’t a swaptions market. If Kocic is right, vol traders in 2017 (and perhaps 2018) will suffer the same fate. Of course, the 2007 episode is best remembered not for the the vol linked pink slips, but the explosion in VIX shortly thereafter and the resultant near collapse of the US financial system. Despite the Fed’s relentless pressure, trillions in liquidity injections and vol selling, we see nothing that has changed since then, and no reason why this time will be different.

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How to Enter Crypto Market without Expertise? CryptoFund Gives Answer!

The interest of potential investors to the new market is understandable, as alternative investments compared to traditional ones give the opportunity to profit more than 1,000% per year, and the apparent market bull trend allows expecting even higher levels of profit. The forecasted profitability on cryptocurrency investments may exceed 1,250%. Not Too Late However, cryptocurrency … Continue reading How to Enter Crypto Market without Expertise? CryptoFund Gives Answer!

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JSEcoin Self Mining is Now Back Up and Running Again

It seems that quite a lot of websites have recently got into crypto mining Monero (XMR) using the Javascript miner provided by Coin Hive without warning their users that there will be such a thing when you visit them. That of course cannot remain undiscovered for long time due to the increased CPU load when […]

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Liberal ‘Therapists’ Pen Open Letter Blaming Trump For “National Mental Health Crisis”

Authored by Alex Thomas via SHTFplan.com,
A group of mostly liberal mental health experts has penned an anti-Trump hit piece that declares the president and his tens of millions of supporters responsible for a new mental health crisis that the so-calle…

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“This Is Textbook” – Military Officials Defend Trump Administration’s Puerto Rico Response

A steady drumbeat of criticism accusing the White House of not doing enough to hasten the federal government’s relief effort in Puerto Rico has metastasized into yet another political dogfight, as President Trump and the White House respond to an outpouring of outrage from celebrities, politicians and local officials over the administration’s purported inaction over the response.

The backlash to what we imagine the media will soon tag as “Trump’s Katrina” began earlier this week when Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio urged the president to leverage the full might of the US military to aid the disaster response.

But an emotional plea from San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulin Cruz during a press conference late Friday helped elevate the issue to the forefront of the public’s consciousness, eliciting an avalanche of condemnation from celebrities, Democratic politicians, and basically every group that opposed Trump during the election.

“Hamilton” Writer Lin-Manuel Miranda tweeted that Trump would go “straight to hell” for ignoring the Puerto Rican people.

You’re going straight to hell, @realDonaldTrump.
No long lines for you.
Someone will say, “Right this way, sir.”
They’ll clear a path. https://t.co/xXfJH0KJmw

— Lin-Manuel Miranda (@Lin_Manuel) September 30, 2017

During her remarks, Cruz – who was standing in front of palates full of water, food and supplies – described the situation in Puerto Rico as something akin to “genocide” before blasting the administration for its allegedly sluggish response to the disaster, drawing a harsh response from Trump, which served only to further elevate the controversy.

The media quickly piled on, with the Washington Post publishing yet another “bombshell” report calling out Trump for choosing to spend last weekend at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., which the paper alleged contributed to the inadequate disaster response.

But while the backlash to Trump’s remarks has been swift and loud, assessments of the administration’s handling of the response by military officials (people with disaster-recovery experience) have been notably more measured.

Army Lt. Gen. Jeff Buchanan said Friday morning that the Pentagon has 10,000 people helping with the response to Hurricanes Maria and Irma – an unprecedented number. But even that number isn’t enough, he said. Fortunately, the Defense Department is sending more, according to Army Lt. Gen. Jeff Buchanan, who was recently appointed to be the DoD’s liaison with FEMA.  

“We’re certainly bringing in more [troops],” Buchanan said on CNN’s “New Day.”

 

“For example, on the military side, we’re bringing in both Air Force, Navy, and Army medical capabilities in addition to aircraft, more helicopters. … [But] it’s not enough, and we’re bringing more in.”

As the Hill points out, the Pentagon initially sent 4,000 troops to help in rescue and restoration efforts to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but it wasn’t until Thursday, eight days after Maria slammed the Caribbean, that US Northern Command (Northcom) sent Buchanan. However, at least one administration official quickly pointed out that the early phases of the relief effort had been coordinated by the Navy, and that Buchanan’s appointment coincided with FEMA taking the reins of the recovery effort.

However, Tom Bossert, Trump’s homeland security adviser, defended the lag between when the storm hit and when Buchanan was appointed.

 

“It didn’t require a three-star general eight days ago,” Bossert said of the government response.

 

When asked whether it was a mistake to not have Buchanan on the ground in Puerto Rico earlier, Bossert replied, “No, not at all.”

 

“In fact, that doesn’t affect the way that we stage equipment and the way we area command and field operational command. This is textbook and it’s been done well,” Bossert told reporters Thursday at the daily White House press briefing.

Indeed, while the media and Trump’s political opponents have implied that the administration waited until this week to organize a meaningful response to the disaster, in reality, the Pentagon has been steadily increasing its help to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands after both were slammed by the two Category 5 storms. The Pentagon began deploying more resources early this week, opening a second airfield at the former Naval Station Roosevelt Roads, preparing the hospital ship USNS Comfort to deploy from Norfolk and establishing a caravan of cargo jets filled with equipment and supplies.

As we’ve reported many times, Hurricane Maria – following just two weeks behind Hurricane Irma, another devastating storm – caused unprecedented damage to Puerto Rico’s infrastructure, destroying roads, devastating power grids, and cutting off communications. With many parts of the island completely cut off from the outside world, it was difficult for the military to assess the true extent of the damage and scale up operations accordingly.

In yet another example of how Trump’s opponents have twisted or ignored facts when spinning a self-serving narrative about the administration’s response, Rubio said Friday on CNN that Trump should put the US military in charge of handling and delivering aid to Puerto Rico – ignoring the fact that, until late this week, the Navy had been supervising the response from the sea.

Poviding a notable counterpoint to Mayor Cruz’s criticisms, Puerto Rico Gov. Riccardo Rossello has repeatedly thanked and praised the federal response. In a mid-day tweet, Trump thanked Rossello for his praise.  

The Governor of Puerto Rico, Ricardo Rossello, is a great guy and leader who is really working hard. Thank you Ricky!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 30, 2017

Trump praised another Puerto Rican politician, Congresswoman Jennifer Gonzalez-Colon, claiming that she has been “wonderful to deal with”…

Congresswoman Jennifer Gonzalez-Colon of Puerto Rico has been wonderful to deal with and a great representative of the people. Thank you!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 30, 2017

…And asked the Puerto Rican people not to pay attention to the “fake news.”

To the people of Puerto Rico:
Do not believe the #FakeNews!#PRStrong????????

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 30, 2017

My Administration, Governor @RicardoRossello, and many others are working together to help the people of Puerto Rico in every way…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 30, 2017

……#FakeNews critics are working overtime, but we’re getting great marks from the people that truly matter! #PRStrong????????

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 30, 2017

We must all be united in offering assistance to everyone suffering in Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the wake of this terrible disaster.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 30, 2017

In an interview with ABC, an anonymous White House official pointed out the irony in Cruz’s remarks: Namely, she’s been spending more time speaking to the media than helping out herself.

“She has been invited to FEMA command center several times to see operations and be part of efforts but so far has refused to come, maybe too busy doing TV?”

While criticism has focused on Trump’s reluctance to wave the Jones Act and send in the military, the response hasn’t foundered for lack of supplies. Already has hundreds of thousands of pounds of food, water and other emergency necessitites stuck in Puerto Rican ports. The problems are related to circumstances on the ground. The country’s devastated roads, and a shortage of truckers to drive the supplies into devastated areas, has arguably been the biggest impediment to the recovery effort.

But perhaps most tellingly of all, former Navy Captain Jerry Hendrix – a veteran of several disaster response efforts who has no connection to the Trump administration – told Bloomberg that he believed criticisms of the administration’s efforts have been unfair.

Hendrix explained that the Pentagon and FEMA weren’t being recognized for their careful preparations for the storms.

TH: So, it seems like everybody has blasted Trump administration’s response to the Puerto Rico crisis. Has that criticism been fair?

 

JH: No, I don’t think so. First of all, there was a fair amount of anticipatory action that is not being recognized. Amphibious ships, including the light amphibious carriers Kearsarge and Wasp and the amphibious landing ship dock Oak Hill were at sea and dispatched to Puerto Rico ahead of the hurricane’s impact.

So far, 16 deaths have been recorded on the island in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, which made landfall a week-and-a-half ago as a category four storm. More than 80% of the island is without power, and about 40% doesn’t have access to potable water. Still, roads are being cleared, airports are reopening, and cell service is being restored. Soon, the public’s attention will shift to the mainland, as tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans who’ve seen their homes destroyed by the storms flee the island to stay with relatives until they’re ready to return to the island.

For what it’s worth, mayors of cities with large Puerto Rican populations like New York and Orlando say they are working with the federal goernment to accomodate the influx of temporary residents. New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio has said he expects up to 100,000 disaster victims to stay with relatives and friends in NYC alone.

However, the question remains: When their time comes, will they also denounce the federal response to score cheap political points?

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138MH Scrypt Miner Litecoin machine used A4 Dominator 138M Scrypt miner include power supply better than ZEUS GRIDSEED ANTMINER

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Original Antminer 6PIN*10 Antminer APW3++-12-1600-A3,1600w power supply BITMAIN APW3+ PSU Series,ETH PSU,antminer S9 S7 L3 PSU

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